Calculate the expected value (EV) of opening a card pack. Enter card rarities, pull rates, and market values to find if a pack is worth buying.
Is opening packs a good deal or should you buy singles? This calculator computes the expected value (EV) of a card pack by summing the probability-weighted values of all possible pulls.
For any collectible card game, each rarity tier has a specific pull rate and average market value. By multiplying each tier's rate by its value and summing, you get the EV per pack. If EV exceeds the pack cost, packs are +EV; otherwise, buying singles is more efficient.
This applies to physical TCGs, digital card games, and any system where you open randomized packs of items with known market values.
Gamers, streamers, and content creators benefit from precise card pack expected value data when optimizing their setup, planning purchases, or maximizing performance and value. Bookmark this tool and return whenever your hardware, games, or streaming requirements change.
From casual players to competitive esports enthusiasts, knowing your precise card pack expected value numbers empowers smarter hardware investments, streaming decisions, and long-term upgrade planning. Adjust the inputs above to mirror your actual setup and discover optimizations you may have overlooked.
From casual players to competitive esports enthusiasts, knowing your precise card pack expected value numbers empowers smarter hardware investments, streaming decisions, and long-term upgrade planning. Adjust the inputs above to mirror your actual setup and discover optimizations you may have overlooked.
Pack opening is exciting but often -EV (negative expected value). Knowing the actual EV prevents overspending on packs when buying individual cards would be cheaper. Make data-driven decisions about whether to crack packs or buy the specific cards you need. Instant results let you compare different configurations and scenarios quickly, helping you get the best performance and value from your gaming budget.
EV = Σ(pull_rate_i × average_value_i) for each rarity slot Net EV = EV − Pack Cost ROI = (Net EV / Pack Cost) × 100%
Result: $1.16 EV → -$2.84 per pack (−71% ROI)
EV = (0.70 × $0.05) + (0.25 × $1.50) + (0.05 × $15.00) = $0.035 + $0.375 + $0.75 = $1.16 per card slot. For a 10-card pack: $11.60 EV. But most card slots are common-only, so actual per-pack EV is lower. The calculation per slot gives a general picture.
Card pack EV is driven by the secondary market. As players open packs and sell singles, supply increases and prices drop. This means pack EV is time-sensitive — highest at release, declining as the set ages.
For competitive players building a specific deck, buying singles is mathematically optimal in nearly all cases. For collectors or players wanting broad collection coverage, packs provide more total cards per dollar even if the market value is lower.
Some players treat sealed product as an investment. Unopened boxes of popular sets can appreciate significantly over years. If the expected appreciation exceeds the EV of opening, holding sealed product can be the optimal strategy.
Expected value is the average return from opening one pack over many trials. If EV is $3 and the pack costs $4, you lose $1 on average per pack. Individual packs can beat or miss the average widely.
Game companies need to profit. The total value of cards printed exceeds the cost of packs, but commons flood the market and become worthless, dragging down EV. Only rare chase cards hold significant value.
Packs can be +EV at set launch when demand outpaces supply, for sets with exceptionally valuable chase cards, or when sealed product is discounted below MSRP. Keep in mind that individual circumstances can significantly affect the outcome.
If you need specific cards, singles are almost always cheaper. Packs are better for building a general collection, enjoying the opening experience, or when you need many commons and uncommons from a new set.
Boxes often guarantee a minimum number of high-rarity cards, improving EV per pack. A box of 36 packs might guarantee 1-2 ultra-rares that individual packs don't guarantee, making boxes the better bulk purchase.
Yes, with some caveats. Digital cards can't be resold on open markets, so value is measured by dust/crafting currency. EV should be calculated in terms of crafting material gained versus the cost to craft what you need directly.