Calculate expected pulls with soft and hard pity mechanics. Model gacha pity systems to find average pulls needed for a featured item.
Many modern gacha and loot-box games implement pity systems that increase pull rates after consecutive failures. This calculator models both soft pity (gradually increasing rates) and hard pity (guaranteed success at a maximum count).
Soft pity begins increasing your base rate at a specific pull threshold. For example, in some games, the rate starts ramping at pull 74 and reaches 100% at pull 90 (hard pity). This dramatically changes the expected pull count compared to pure random chance.
Enter your base rate, soft pity start, hard pity cap, and the rate increase per pull during soft pity to see a realistic expected pull count that accounts for these mechanics.
Gamers, streamers, and content creators benefit from precise pity system data when optimizing their setup, planning purchases, or maximizing performance and value. Bookmark this tool and return whenever your hardware, games, or streaming requirements change.
From casual players to competitive esports enthusiasts, knowing your precise pity system numbers empowers smarter hardware investments, streaming decisions, and long-term upgrade planning. Adjust the inputs above to mirror your actual setup and discover optimizations you may have overlooked.
From casual players to competitive esports enthusiasts, knowing your precise pity system numbers empowers smarter hardware investments, streaming decisions, and long-term upgrade planning. Adjust the inputs above to mirror your actual setup and discover optimizations you may have overlooked.
Without accounting for pity mechanics, expected pull calculations are wildly inaccurate for modern gacha games. A 0.6% base rate suggests 167 expected pulls, but with soft pity starting at pull 74 and hard pity at 90, the real average is closer to 62 pulls. This calculator gives you the accurate number.
For pulls 1 to soft_start: rate = base_rate For pulls soft_start to hard_pity: rate = base_rate + (pull − soft_start) × rate_increase At hard_pity: rate = 100% Expected pulls = Σ(pull × P(first success at that pull))
Result: ~62.5 expected pulls
With 0.6% base rate, soft pity from pull 74, 6% increase per pull, and hard pity at 90: the effective average is about 62.5 pulls. Most players hit the item between pulls 75-85 due to the ramping soft pity rate.
Pity systems were introduced to make gacha spending more predictable. By guaranteeing success within a maximum number of pulls and ramping rates before that threshold, they reduce variance while maintaining the excitement of random pulls.
The soft pity window is where most players actually get their rare items. Once rates start ramping, the per-pull probability increases dramatically. In many implementations, going from 0.6% to 30%+ per pull happens within just 10-15 pulls.
Always plan banner spending around pity. Enter a banner at or near soft pity for the best value. If you're at 0 pity, budget for the full expected pull count. Knowing these numbers transforms gacha from gambling into calculated spending.
Soft pity is a hidden or documented mechanic where the success rate gradually increases after a certain number of failed pulls. It makes getting the item more likely as you approach hard pity, smoothing out the experience.
Hard pity is a guaranteed success at a specific pull count. If you haven't gotten the rare item by pull 90 (or whatever the cap is), pull 90 is guaranteed to be a success. This sets an upper bound on spending.
Soft pity significantly reduces expected pulls below the pure random expectation. Without pity, a 0.6% rate needs ~167 pulls on average. With soft pity starting at 74 and hard pity at 90, the average drops to ~62 pulls.
Pity resets to 0 after a successful pull. Whether it carries between banners depends on the game. Most games carry pity within the same banner type but reset across different types.
Many games have a 50/50 system where the rare pull is equally likely to be the featured item or a standard item. If you lose the 50/50, the next pity is usually guaranteed to be the featured item.
Budget enough for hard pity (worst case). If hard pity is 90 pulls and each pull costs $2, budget $180. The average cost will be lower, but budgeting for the worst case prevents overspending.