Calculate expected number of gacha pulls to reach a target confidence level. Enter rate, pity, and desired confidence percentage.
How many pulls do you need to be 90% confident you'll get the item? What about 99%? This calculator works backwards from your desired confidence level to tell you exactly how many pulls to budget.
While the expected number of pulls gives you the average, many players want a higher confidence level before committing resources. This tool computes pull counts for any confidence percentage, factoring in optional pity mechanics.
Plan your savings and spending with precision. Know whether your stash of 120 pulls gives you an 80% or 95% chance, and decide if you need to save more before a banner drops.
Gamers, streamers, and content creators benefit from precise expected pulls for target data when optimizing their setup, planning purchases, or maximizing performance and value. Bookmark this tool and return whenever your hardware, games, or streaming requirements change.
From casual players to competitive esports enthusiasts, knowing your precise expected pulls for target numbers empowers smarter hardware investments, streaming decisions, and long-term upgrade planning. Adjust the inputs above to mirror your actual setup and discover optimizations you may have overlooked.
From casual players to competitive esports enthusiasts, knowing your precise expected pulls for target numbers empowers smarter hardware investments, streaming decisions, and long-term upgrade planning. Adjust the inputs above to mirror your actual setup and discover optimizations you may have overlooked.
Planning around the expected value means you'll succeed only about 63% of the time. For important banner targets, most players want 90%+ confidence. This calculator tells you exactly how much to save to reach your desired confidence level. Instant results let you compare different configurations and scenarios quickly, helping you get the best performance and value from your gaming budget.
Pulls needed = ceil(ln(1 − confidence) / ln(1 − rate)) With hard pity: min(calculated pulls, hard pity)
Result: 230 pulls for 90% confidence
At 1% rate with no pity: ceil(ln(0.10) / ln(0.99)) = 230 pulls for 90% confidence. For 99% confidence, you'd need 459 pulls. With hard pity at 100, 90% confidence requires only about 100 pulls.
Expected value planning means you'll fail 37% of the time. Percentile-based planning lets you choose your failure rate. At 90%, only 10% of players will miss; at 95%, only 5%. Choose the level that matches the item's importance to you.
For free-to-play or low-spending players, knowing the 90% confidence pull count months in advance lets you plan savings. If you need 160 pulls and earn 50 per month, start saving 3+ months before the expected banner date.
If you don't have enough pulls for at least 50% confidence, strongly consider waiting. Pulling with low odds leads to the worst outcome: spending resources and getting nothing. Patience is the most effective gacha strategy.
For important banner targets, 90% is the standard recommendation. 80% is acceptable if you're flexible about the result. Never spend at less than 50% confidence for a must-have item — you'll likely be disappointed.
Hard pity sets an absolute ceiling. If pity is at 90 pulls, you reach 100% confidence at 90 pulls regardless of the base rate. This makes planning straightforward — save 90 pulls and you're guaranteed.
Expected pulls is the statistical average (about 63% confidence). Percentile pulls tell you how many pulls give a specific probability of success. The 90th percentile pull count is always higher than the expected value.
For multiple copies, multiply the per-copy expected pulls. More precisely, use a negative binomial distribution. As a rough guide, 2 copies takes about 2× the single-copy pull count.
If your game has a 50/50 system where you might not get the featured item on win, multiply pull counts by approximately 1.5× for a single featured copy since you may need two pity cycles.
Divide the currency cost per pull by the best real-money exchange rate. Use the Gacha Cost Estimator for precise real-money calculations.