Free 4% rule retirement calculator. Find out how much you can safely withdraw each year based on the Trinity Study. See your annual income, monthly income, and required portfolio size.
The 4% Rule Calculator applies the most famous retirement spending guideline: withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust that amount for inflation each year. The rule, based on the 1994 Trinity Study, was designed to provide 30 years of retirement income with a high probability of not running out of money.
This calculator shows you the annual and monthly income from your portfolio using the 4% rule, or alternatively, calculates the portfolio size you need to support your desired retirement spending.
Enter your portfolio balance or desired annual spending to plan your retirement income strategy. Keep in mind that the original Trinity Study assumed a 50/50 stock-bond allocation and a 30-year retirement horizon — longer retirements or different allocations may call for adjusting the rate. At a $1 million portfolio, the 4% rule yields $40,000 per year or about $3,333 per month, providing a straightforward benchmark for your planning.
The 4% rule is the most widely cited retirement spending guideline because of its simplicity and decades of supporting evidence. This calculator makes it easy to apply — either find your income from a given portfolio or find the portfolio you need for your desired lifestyle. It gives you a clear, research-backed target to work toward during your accumulation years.
Year 1 Withdrawal = Portfolio Balance × 4% Year N Withdrawal = Year 1 Withdrawal × (1 + Inflation)^(N−1) Required Portfolio = Desired Annual Spending ÷ 0.04 (i.e., 25× annual spending)
Result: $40,000/year ($3,333/month)
With a $1M portfolio, the 4% rule gives you $40,000 in year one. With 3% inflation, that becomes $41,200 in year two, $42,436 in year three, and so on. Historically, this approach has survived 30+ years in over 95% of rolling periods.
The Trinity Study analyzed portfolio survival rates from 1926-1995 across various withdrawal rates and asset allocations. At a 4% withdrawal rate with a 50/50 stock/bond mix, portfolios survived the full 30 years in 95% of rolling periods. At 3%, the success rate was 100%. At 5%, it dropped to about 76%.
The 25x rule makes retirement math simple. If you spend $40K/year, you need $1M. If you spend $80K/year, you need $2M. This gives you a clear savings target to work toward during your accumulation years.
The rule doesn't account for variable spending (most people spend more early in retirement), taxes (withdrawals from 401k/IRA are taxable), Social Security timing, or one-time expenses like healthcare crises. Use it as a starting point, not a complete retirement plan.
The 4% rule states that you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year. Based on historical data from 1926-1995, this strategy had a 95%+ success rate over 30-year periods with a balanced stock/bond portfolio.
Financial advisor William Bengen first proposed the 4% guideline in 1994. The Trinity Study (1998) by Cooley, Hubbard, and Walz confirmed and expanded on his research. The rule has since been validated with updated data through recent decades.
The rule has been debated due to lower expected bond yields and high equity valuations. Some researchers now suggest 3.3-3.5% is safer, while others argue the original 4% still holds with a flexible approach. The key is to treat it as a guideline, not a rigid rule.
The 25x rule is the inverse of the 4% rule: to find the portfolio you need, multiply your annual spending by 25. Need $60,000/year? You need $1.5 million. Need $100,000/year? You need $2.5 million. It's a quick and effective target.
Yes! The 4% applies only to the first year. In subsequent years, you increase the dollar amount by inflation. So if you withdraw $40,000 in year one and inflation is 3%, you withdraw $41,200 in year two regardless of portfolio performance.
For retirements longer than 30 years (FIRE retirees), most financial planners recommend 3-3.5% to provide a larger margin of safety. A 50-year retirement at 4% has a notably lower success rate than a 30-year one.